SIP vs Lumpsum: which actually wins over 20 years?

The math

Over rolling 20-year windows in Indian equity (2000–2025), lumpsum invested at start beats SIP ≈ 70% of the time.

But here’s the catch

You almost never *have* a lumpsum. You earn monthly. SIP captures monthly cash flow without market-timing anxiety.

When to lumpsum

• Bonus / windfall (in tax-saving funds for last-minute 80C).
• Market down 20%+ from highs (rare but valuable).
• Goal-based: house down payment with 1-year horizon.

When SIP wins decisively

• New investor (psychology > math).
• Volatile income.
• 5–10 year horizons.

The hybrid

Lumpsum 30%, SIP the remaining over 6–12 months — reduces regret in both directions.